Avatar Sequel Has To Make Big Numbers For A Profit; Chances Are, It Won't
It took an absurdly long theatrical run and several re-releases, but James Cameron's 2009 epic Avatar holds the record for the highest box office in cinematic history with $2.92 billion earned.
No one expects the long-awaited sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, to match its predecessor's total, but Cameron said that it'll have to come close in order to make financial sense.
The Way of Water has a reported budget of around $250 million, which would be one of the twenty most expensive movies ever made. Avatar is number 24 on that list with $237 million; the record is firmly held by 2011's Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides with $379 million. This only factors in production expenses, not the lofty costs of marketing, distribution, and all other post-production expenses.
Cameron reportedly told a Fox executive that the sequel is cinematic history's "worst business case" before the company was bought by Disney. He similarly told GQ that, being so expensive, The Way of Water isn't a smart logistical move in terms of financing from a studio.
To break even, Cameron believes The Way of Water will need to be one of the three or four highest-grossing films in history. That's the metric he believes the film needs to hit to make a profit – $2.1 billion. Star Wars: The Force Awakens is currently fourth on that list; Cameron's 1997 film Titanic is third.
According to current projections from Box Office Pro, The Way of Water is looking at a domestic opening weekend of $135 million. That would double Avatar's debut weekend.
Despite a potentially stronger start than Avatar had, it's not likely that its sequel will match its final run.
While opening projections are higher than the original's opening weekend, The Way of Water's $135 million debut would rank only 37th in all-time domestic debut weekends, just above 2016's Finding Dory. Projections for its entire cinematic run are just under $500 million – less than two-thirds of what Avatar had hit.
Avatar blew away box office records because it was an epic of unprecedented proportions; it mastered CGI in a way that the previous decade could not, setting the tone for the last 13 years of filmmaking. Since then, it hasn't necessarily lasted as a beloved movie the way its box office totals would imply. The world of cinema is filled with CGI just as good as (or better than) what we saw in Avatar and its defining characteristic has since become pedestrian.
Sequels inherently bring viewers. Fans of Avatar will flock to theaters to see Jake Sully on Pandora a decade later, leading to those high opening weekend projections. But Avatar owns the record because of repeat viewers and word of mouth – the magic of the groundbreaking film kept bringing people back. It eventually lasted 234 days in theater, something that never happens anymore. The Way of Water can't match that.
Cameron's sequel will probably hit around $1.3 billion, based on Box Office Pro's domestic projections and Avatar's percentage of international viewers. Unless it can match the magic of its predecessor, The Way of Water cannot compete with Avatar's total.