Game of Thrones Genetics: Why Was Ned Stark So Sure About Cersei and Jaime?
There’s quite a logical leap of faith between “the kids aren’t Robert’s” and “Jaime fathered his sister’s kids.” How did Ned Stark come to that conclusion?
While the main events of Game of Thrones kick off with Jon Arryn’s death, they really start spiraling out of control once Ned Stark learns the truth about Cersei’s children. The Warden of the North managed to establish two crucial facts: that Robert Baratheon wasn’t the father of Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella — and that Jaime Lannister was.
But one doesn’t necessitate the other, so how did Ned come to the realization that there was some twincest involved in this already messy succession story?
Ned Easily Deducted That Robert Wasn’t the Father
The first step of Ned’s investigation didn’t require him to have a doctorate in genetics. He first started suspecting something when he learned about Jon Arryn’s inquiries about King Robert’s bastards and the records about Great Houses’ members. It didn’t take long for him to put two and two together and understand that Lord Arryn was questioning Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella’s legitimacy.
Jon Arryn’s last words were, “The seed is strong.” Robert’s bastards Ned personally saw all had dark hair. All Baratheons in recorded history had dark hair, in fact — and Robert and Cersei’s presumed children didn’t. Ned Stark quickly realized that King Robert Baratheon wasn’t the father of the three blonde kids. But what next?
How Did Ned Figure Out Jaime Was the Real Father?
There’s a long leap of faith between pointing out who isn’t the father and understanding who is. There was no feasible evidence of Jaime and Cersei’s relationship at that point, but Lord Stark still made the scary accusation. He was correct, of course — but how could he have uncovered the twins’ secret?
It wasn’t until his daughter Sansa pointed out just how much of a Lannister young Joffrey was that the previous bits of information started clicking in Ned’s head. Indeed, Joffrey was not just unlike the Baratheons — he was also too much like the Lannisters. Several previous events started appearing in a different light to Ned.
Jon Arryn’s death, presumably by the Lannisters. Bran Stark’s failed assassination, presumably also by the Lannisters. The unique and rumored about connection between Jaime and Cersei. Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella’s hair colors…
Lord Stark wasn’t 100% sure that Jaime was the father, but he went with his gut feeling and was correct. Unfortunately, he didn’t handle the matter the right way and trusted the wrong people — but he definitely cracked this case alright.